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Thank you dating ads in rimouski quebec visiting nature. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer. In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript. Although global and Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions are coherent with climate dating ads in rimouski quebec simulations over the last millennium, reconstructed temperatures tend to diverge from simulations at smaller spatial scales.

Yet, it remains unclear to what extent dating ads in rimouski quebec regional peculiarities reflect region-specific internal climate variability or inadequate proxy coverage and quality.

Here, we present a high-quality, millennial-long summer temperature reconstruction for northeastern Dating ads in rimouski quebec America, based on maximum latewood density, the most temperature-sensitive tree-ring proxy.

Our reconstruction shows that a large majority 31 out of 44 of the coldest extremes can be attributed to explosive volcanic eruptions, with more persistent cooling following large tropical than extratropical events. These forced climate variations synchronize regional summer temperatures with hemispheric reconstructions and simulations at the multidecadal time scale. Our study highlights that tropical volcanism is the major driver of multidecadal temperature variations across spatial scales.

Global and Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions now depict high coherence with simulations at the multidecadal time scale, enhancing the predictability of the climate system 25.

In contrast, at subcontinental scales, preindustrial temperature variations seem to be region-specific 6 and less spatially coherent in reconstructions than simulations 78. However, it remains unclear to what extent such regional differences reflect high internal variability of the climate system or inadequate proxy coverage and quality 8910especially in regions where high-quality proxy data are lacking.

Northeastern North America hereafter the NENA region is an archetypal example of this situation where regional uncertainties are large. It is one of the regions of the Northern Hemisphere that lacks millennial-long maximum latewood density MXD data, the most sensitive tree-ring proxy for reconstructing summer temperature variability with annual resolution 51112 Only 12 MXD chronologies have so far allowed reconstruction of summer temperatures back to CE, with 11 of them clustered in Eurasia Supplementary Table 1leading to a well-known gap in MXD-based temperature reconstruction in North America 131415 Fig.

The red solid square refers to the area where the southern Quebec historical temperatures were recorded. Dating ads in rimouski quebec borderlines are made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data naturalearthdata.

Based on this dataset, we show that an important proportion of the multidecadal temperature variability in NENA is externally forced by explosive volcanism, especially tropical eruptions, synchronizing regional variations with those of the whole Northern Hemisphere.

The existing but shorter and less replicated Quex dataset — CE; 45 trees was added to our network Fig. A two-century historical record in southern Quebec Methods extends the period of verification, correlating at 0. We speculate that this phenomenon reflects the increasing severity of post-eruption growth stress towards the northern treeline.

D-STREC shows that the strongest centennial warming dating ads in rimouski quebec during the twentieth and twenty-first centuries — CEwith a linear temperature rise of 0. Furthermore, — CE was the warmest decade of the past years 1. With six out of the 10 warmest decades clustered between and CE Supplementary Table 4medieval summers were, on average, 0. Cold decades during the past years were frequently related to large tropical eruptions. Other large tropical eruptions, such as the Huaynaputina CEParker CEand Cosiguina CE events, were each followed by very cold decades ranked the 2nd, 4th, and 9th coldest, respectivelyalthough additive effects of multiple events are also possible Supplementary Table 5.

The higher proportion of unattributed cold extremes in the first millennium 5 out of 9 is most likely due to greater uncertainties in ice-core dating of earlier volcanic events Accordingly, we constrain our subsequent volcano-related analyses to the — dating ads in rimouski quebec. On average, tropical eruptions caused about a 5—10 years of significant cooling 0. The cooling peak generally lagged the tropical eruptions by 1 year and corresponded to the forcing peak Fig.

Comparisons of SEAs using multiple dating ads in rimouski quebec of volcanic events validate the more persistent cooling following tropical eruptions Fig. Because tropical eruptions influence a larger oceanic domain with high thermal capacity 3235ocean—atmosphere heat exchanges can cool continental summers 36 beyond the direct aerosol forcing, in a more persistent way compared to NHET eruptions Fig. This behavior most likely results from the strong biological memory of ring-width data 11the only high-frequency component of 3P-STREC.

Temperatures and forcing are calculated relative to the 5-year pre-eruption mean. Horizontal dashed lines in a and b represent the 0. The eruptions used for analyses are listed in Supplementary Table 7.

The region-hemisphere coherence dating ads in rimouski quebec particularly strong during — CE, and remains relatively high and significant at 20—year time scale band-pass filter even if centennial trends are removed Supplementary Table 8 ; Fig. D-STREC provides complementary proxy evidence that the short-term cooling effect of the Samalas was disproportionately low compared to its amplitude in CMIP5 climate model simulations 828 Guillet Guillet et al.

In a and ball the time series are smoothed using a year low-pass Butterworth filter to highlight multidecadal and long-term variations, and are transformed to z-scores with respect to the — time period.

Correlations are computed using 20—year band-pass filtered series — CE to avoid effects of data quality in the earlier period and recent anthropogenic warming. Colors refer to the legends of a and b. By averaging 25 members, the CMIP5 multimodel mean largely masks out the unforced internal variability 74243 Thus, the significant correlations among D-STREC and NHET temperature reconstructions and the multimodel mean simulation imply that externally forced climate variations produce a strong imprint at both regional and hemispheric scales.

This result, along with SEA Fig. Consequently, in conformity with detection and attribution studies on hemispheric and global millennial temperatures 24546our study based on high-quality proxy data highlights the dominant role of tropical volcanism in shaping multidecadal temperature variations across spatial scales.

Predictability of multidecadal temperature variability thus remains challenging without any information on future volcanism. L, L20, and L are three newly sampled sites. To ensure data homogeneity 1847we sampled living trees from the lakeshore forests of corresponding lakes where subfossils were collected. New MXD data from dating ads in rimouski quebec sites were measured from 1—2 radii of each sample using the X-ray densitometric technique see Wang dating ads in rimouski quebec al.

The dating of millennial chronologies at these three sites was validated using a subfossil wood sample showing a globally coherent cosmogenic 14 C signature at CE All MXD measurements were averaged by the tree before subsequent analysis. After comparing three standardization methods, including the widely applied regional curve standardization 50the regionally constrained individual signal-free standardization RSFi 51 method was selected to detrend the MXD series at each site Supplementary Methods 23.

The RSFi method efficiently removed nonclimatic signals e. In addition, because the MXD series of black spruce trees are known to exhibit heteroscedastic variance 21we compared chronologies calculated from ratios and residuals plus power-transformation 52 via a time-efficient linear scaling reconstruction approach Chronology characteristics were assessed by the EPS 16rbar, and mean cambial age Supplementary Fig.

Compared to conventional reconstruction methods, the Bayesian approach provides posterior dating ads in rimouski quebec of the climate variable, taking into account individual proxy likelihoods, thus enabling comprehensive uncertainty assessments and improving the reconstruction skill Supplementary Fig.

Calibration of the fourth MXD chronology at the site Quex was limited to the — period, due to the shorter time coverage. We produced chronologies per site with a sampling procedure based on available MXD data points. Supplementary Fig. We generated a long MJJA temperature record from a compilation of historical daily temperature observations from the Saint-Lawrence Valley in southern Quebec Available maximum and minimum temperature data were averaged to represent the daily mean temperatures, which were later aggregated to monthly data.

In order to minimize uncertainties caused by a high frequency of missing values in the early 19th century, a monthly aggregate for each year was retained only if there were less than eight missing daily values in the corresponding month.

We used 25 full-forcing and 23 single-forcing last-millennium simulations of monthly near-surface air temperatures. The single-forcing simulations were obtained from the CESM-LME runs singly forced by greenhouse gases, land use, orbital, solar, and volcanic forcing.

Corresponding climate models and experiments are detailed in Supplementary Table 9. Correlation coefficients are considered significant when P is smaller than 0. Eruptions from Southern Hemisphere extratropics were not considered since they have negligible climatic impacts dating ads in rimouski quebec the extratropical Northern Hemisphere We retained a total of events by removing duplicated eruptions, including those matched by Toohey et al.

A successful match was identified when a cold extreme corresponded to a retained volcanic event, allowing a maximum 2-year lag prior to the cold year, accounting for time lags of volcanic dating ads in rimouski quebec and uncertainties in ice-core dating. If several closely spaced eruptions were matched to an extremely cold year, the eruption of the largest magnitude was considered. The probability that the observed match frequency differs from a random result was estimated from the binomial distribution.

Because of the greater uncertainties in ice-core dating of earlier eruptions 30we tested the statistical significance of the attributions for the entire reconstruction and for the period after CE. We used a regular SEA approach provided by the algorithm of Rao et al. Events in the first millennium were not considered for SEA due to greater dating uncertainties The unidentified events were further screened, and were included when also listed in both IVI2 60 and ICI 61by permitting a 3-year lag The key eruption years used for the SEA were re-evaluated to minimize potential uncertainties in the assessment of volcanic effect.

For unidentified events, we adopted the years adjusted by the latest application of eVolv2k 64accounting for the time lags between eruptions and ice sheet deposition. The adjustments on 10 tropical events led to a more consistent SEA result compared to that using identified tropical eruptions Supplementary Figs.

In addition, key years were set 1 year after the eruption for events that occurred in or after August otherwise assumed in the same yeara strategy adapted from Guevara-Murua et al. Not considering this lag could introduce biases to SEA because tree ring is a seasonal proxy. For example, an eruption in December cannot affect the tree-ring formation in the same year because black spruce grows in dating ads in rimouski quebec This adjustment was applied to limited events with known eruption months, yet, it could result in a more evident cooling in response to NHET eruptions Supplementary Fig.

We performed SEA on multiple time series reconstructions and simulations based on the above-constructed key eruption years. We considered the temperature anomalies of 15 post-eruption years relative to the 5-year pre-eruption mean. The statistical significance of volcanic cooling was assessed using the block reshuffling method 70 with 10, iterations.

This analysis considered the SEA eruption list key years in Supplementary Table 7 but excluded the period earlier than CE and the recent warming trend after CE. In total, and post-eruption years were excluded from each series to form a nontropical and a non-NHET eruption group, respectively. The retained values in individual temperature series were then chronologically stitched, smoothed using a band-pass filter 20— yearsand correlated with the similarly processed D-STREC.

Although stitching time series is somewhat arbitrary, the resulting correlations help assess the impact of eruptions on the region-hemisphere coherence. We produced sets of 19 pseudo-tropical and 15 pseudo-NHET eruptions by randomly sampling without replacement between and CE, of which the number of post-eruption years to be excluded was the same as corresponding true dating ads in rimouski quebec. Northern Hemisphere tree-ring reconstructions Anchukaitis et al.

The Stoffel et dating ads in rimouski quebec. CRU TS 4. The code used to analyze data is available from the corresponding author upon request.

The code for superposed epoch analysis is available in Rao et al. Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia.

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